Journal De Bruxelles - China shuns calls to enter nuclear talks after US-Russia treaty lapses

Campaigners have warned that the expiry of the New START treaty could trigger a global arms race, urging nuclear powers to enter negotiations.

The United States has said any new nuclear agreement would have to include China, whose nuclear arsenal is rapidly expanding, but international efforts to draw Beijing to the negotiating table have so far failed.

China's foreign ministry joined a growing chorus expressing regret on Thursday over the expiry of the treaty, saying it was "of utmost importance to safeguarding global strategic stability".

Nevertheless, "China's nuclear capabilities are of a totally different scale as those of the United States and Russia," foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian told a news conference.

Beijing "will not participate in nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage", he said.

Russia and the United States together control more than 80 percent of the world's nuclear warheads.

China's nuclear arsenal, meanwhile, is growing faster than any country's, by about 100 new warheads a year since 2023, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

China is estimated to have at least 600 nuclear warheads, SIPRI says -- well below the 800 each at which Russia and the United States were capped under New START.

France and Britain, treaty-bound US allies, together have another 100.

- Fears of nuclear war -

Signed during a warmer period of relations, US President Donald Trump did not follow up on Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin's proposal to extend New START's limits for one year.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called the expiry a "grave moment".

"For the first time in more than half a century, we face a world without any binding limits on the strategic nuclear arsenals" of Russia and the United States, Guterres said in a statement.

"This dissolution of decades of achievement could not come at a worse time -- the risk of a nuclear weapon being used is the highest in decades," he said, after Russian suggestions of using tactical nuclear weapons early in the Ukraine war.

Pope Leo XIV said each side needed to do "everything possible" to avert a new arms race.

A NATO official, speaking on condition of anonymity, called for "restraint and responsibility" and said that the US-led military alliance "will continue to take steps necessary" to ensure its defence.

A group of Japanese survivors of US atomic bombs during World War II said they feared the world was marching towards nuclear war.

"Given the current situation, I have a feeling that in the not-too-distant future, we'll actually have a nuclear war and head toward destruction," Terumi Tanaka, co-chair of the Nihon Hidankyo group, told a press conference.

In the run-up to the treaty's expiry, the metaphorical "Doomsday Clock" representing how near humanity is to catastrophe moved closer than ever to midnight, as its board warned of heightened risks of a nuclear arms race.

- 'Impossible' without Chine -

Moscow said it considered that both Russia and the United States were "no longer bound by any obligations" under New START.

"The Russian Federation intends to act responsibly and prudently," it added, but warned it was ready to take "decisive" countermeasures if its national security is threatened.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters of the treaty's expiry that "we view it negatively."

Trump, who has frequently lashed out at international limits on the United States, also looked ready in his first term to let New START lapse as he insisted on including China.

But some observers say the expiry owes less to ideology than to the workings of the Trump administration, where career diplomats are sidelined, simply not having the bandwidth to negotiate a complex agreement.

On Wednesday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated a call for a new agreement that includes China.

"The president's been clear in the past that in order to have true arms control in the 21st century, it's impossible to do something that doesn't include China," Rubio said.

Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association, which warns of nuclear risks, agreed that China should engage.

But "there is no indication that Trump or his team have taken the time to propose risk reduction or arms control talks with China since returning to office in 2025", Kimball said.

The treaty, signed in 2010 in Prague by then presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, limited each side's nuclear arsenal to 1,550 deployed strategic warheads, a reduction of nearly 30 percent from the previous limit set in 2002.

P.Mathieu--JdB